According to research released today (Monday) in the European Heart Journal, Australians lose an average of nearly 50,000 years of healthy life to cardiovascular disease each year as a result of hot weather. This amounts to approximately 7.3 percent of the overall burden resulting from cardiovascular disease-related illnesses and deaths. According to the study, if greenhouse gas emissions continue on their current trajectory, this number may double or even triple by the middle of the century.

The study’s authors point out that their findings also apply to people worldwide because the risk of cardiovascular disease rises with temperature. Our hearts have to work harder to keep us cool in hot weather. Particularly for those who already have cardiovascular disease, this increased pressure can be harmful. Many of us have witnessed firsthand how a warming climate can worsen our health, especially during extended hot spells. The precise number of people who are suffering from severe heart disease or passing away too soon as a result of rising temperatures is still unknown, though, and we must comprehend how this burden will grow in the future.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a metric that counts the number of years of healthy life lost due to illness or death, were employed by the researchers. The researchers used data from the Australian Burden of Disease Database on cardiovascular disease-related illness or death from 2003 to 2018 to determine the current impact of high temperatures.

The amount of cardiovascular disease or mortality that can be linked to hot weather in various Australian regions and the nation at large was then determined using a statistical model. According to this, cardiovascular disease brought on by hot weather results in the loss of 49,483 years of healthy life on average every year. Rather than illness, the majority of these years were lost to death.

The researchers then examined the likely future effects of climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions using their model. They made use of two of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s climate change scenarios: one in which emissions stabilize (also known as Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 or RCP4.5), and another in which emissions continue to rise (RCP8.5).

The effects of population growth and potential adaptations to higher temperatures were also examined. According to the model, under the RCP4.5 scenario, the number of DALYs lost as a result of cardiovascular disease brought on by hot weather will rise by 83.5 percent by 2030, to 90,779.7 DALYs. It is anticipated that this figure will increase even more by 2050, reaching 139,828.9 DALYs, or 182.6 percent more. The DALYs are expected to rise by 92.7 percent to 95,343.0 DALYs in 2030 and by 225.6 percent to 161,095.1 in 2050 under the more severe RCP8.5 scenario.

According to Professor Bi, this study provides a comprehensive picture of the disease burden throughout Australia by integrating some important factors, including population changes, climate change, and adaptation strategies. Because of this, our study is among the first of its kind in the world. There is always some degree of uncertainty in forecasting future disease burden, and our models are predicated on assumptions that might not account for all relevant real-world information. Nevertheless, despite these uncertainties, the thoroughness of our methodology makes the study particularly useful for organizing future mitigation and adaptation plans for climate change.

The basic connection between elevated temperatures and heightened cardiovascular risk has been established worldwide, although our study is centered on Australia. The general pattern that higher temperatures increase the burden of cardiovascular disease is probably true in many regions of the world, even though the precise risks may differ based on regional climates, population composition, and degrees of adaptation. The model also indicates that by implementing strategies that assist individuals in adapting to hotter weather, the impact of high temperatures on cardiovascular disease could be significantly reduced.

Professor Bi continues, Our research indicates that the risks associated with higher temperatures are likely to increase, particularly for vulnerable groups, as climate change brings more frequent and intense heat. It emphasizes how crucial it is to take preventative measures in hot weather, like drinking plenty of water, finding cool places, and getting medical attention when necessary. Additionally, our findings urge immediate funding for adaptation and mitigation measures, such as public health campaigns, urban cooling plans, and enhanced emergency response during hot weather.